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The Americas Latin American Latin drift drastic changes in Nov 19th 2008 written on November 19, 2008 From The World in 2009 print edition is taken from "2009 World Vision," special edition By Michael Reid Author: Michael ? Reid Sorting Latin America's pragmatists from its populists to distinguish between the people of Latin America's pragmatic faction and the party After five years in which Latin America's economies have averaged 5% annual growth with generally low inflation, they face a severe test of their new-found resilience in 2009. Subdued consumption in the rich world will squeeze exports and commodity prices, and finance will be harder to find. Countries with diversified exports and sound policies will be better placed to ride out the storm than those, such as Venezuela and Argentina, that have squandered their commodity windfalls and spurned private enterprise. Politically, tougher times will coincide with, and contribute to , the start of a tentative shift away from the left. five years, Latin America's economy has maintained an annual growth rate of 5%, inflation is generally low, but then they are faced with one in 2009 for its Xinli flexible mechanism challenges. The rich countries of the world will lead to slower growth in spending in Latin America's exports and commodity prices fall, so will further result in the passive situation of financial shortage. Export diversification and rationalization of national policies of countries such as Venezuela and Argentina, can be a waste of merchandise than those who profit and ignore the private enterprise the state should more easily through the financial crisis. From a political point of view, a country with other countries in order to become different, then the period of the more difficult, the more able to achieve this objective. Of the region's two big economies, Brazil will continue to do better than Mexico, but neither will do well. Softening commodity prices will erode Brazil's trade surplus (and cause further depreciation of the real), but the diversity of its export markets and the vigour of domestic consumption will keep growth below 3% (down by more than two percentage points from 2008). With a presidential election due in 2010, Brazilian politics will be dominated by preliminary jockeying over candidacies, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the social-democratic president, seeking to transfer his own popularity to his chosen successor, probably Dilma Rousseff, his chief of staff. Brazil as Latin America's two largest economies in the world, the country's Performance will continue to be better than Mexico, but they are nothing but the two countries is not very impressive. Weak commodity prices will diminish Brazil's trade surplus (and thus accelerate the depreciation of the Brazilian currency rial), but the diversification of their export markets and domestic markets, its economic growth rate of consumption of energy will remain at 3% or less (with 2008 decrease compared 2%). With the 2010 presidential election will be held in Brazil, the Brazilian political will focus on the selection of candidates, while the incumbent Social Democratic Party President Luis Inacio ? ? ? Lula da Silva is also trying very hard to make their reputation for his choice of successor - likely to be his chief of staff Dilma ? Rosoff. Mr Chávez may become more radical: expect him to unearth more fictitious coup plots Mr. Chavez may become more radical: he should be able to open more of the artificial coup The intertwining of Mexico's economy with United States' manufacturing will cut growth to under 1%. That will bring an increase in social tension: tighter border controls mean it has become harder to cross into the United States, and jobs are harder to find there , so the traditional safety valve of emigration will become blocked. The slowdown comes at an awkward moment for Felipe Calderón, Mexico's president. In a mid-term congressional election in July, Mr Calderón's conservative National Action Party is unlikely to win the majority it desperately needs to sweep away the vestiges of corporatism that still hobble the country's economy. The centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled Mexico for seven decades until 2000, will make gains at the expense of the divided left. Whatever happens in the election, Mr Calderón will hope to make headway against powerful drug gangs. Mexico's national economy and the U.S. manufacturing sector led to its economic growth entangled reduced by 1% or less, which also led to increased levels of social political tension: tighter border controls mean that the entry of the United States more difficult, while jobs in the United States more scarce, and therefore America's immigration tradition of "safety valve" are hereby closed. This economic slowdown on the Mexican President Felipe Calderon ? it is very embarrassing for the moment. In the middle of next year, seven more congressional elections, the Conservative Party of President Calderon, "National Action Party," are not likely to win a majority, while the party is desperately needed to clear the obstruction of the country's economic development is still corporatist remnants in the country. Centrist, "Constitution of the Revolutionary Party" in 2000, ruled Mexico since up to seven years, the party will be at the expense of splitting the left-wing parties, the case for their own interests. No matter what will happen next year's general elections, President Calderon will hope in the fight against powerful drug gangs in progress. Argentina's vigorous recovery from its financial collapse of 2001-02 will peter out in 2009, as commodity prices soften. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the populist president, will pay a political price for her failure-and that of her husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner-to persuade investors that Argentina is a safe place to do business. Despite the government's manipulation of the inflation index, Argentines know they are getting poorer. The Kirchners' hold over the Congress and the ruling Peronist party will vanish in a legislative election in October. Rather than the divided opposition parties, Peronist barons of the centre-right may be the big winners. Ms Fernández will govern at their pleasure for the rest of her term until 2012-if she lasts that long. < br> Argentina from 2001-2002 in the financial collapse of the strong recovery, but with the weakness in commodity prices, will once again into the doldrums. People's Party of Argentina,replica tag heuer watches, President Cristina Fernandez ? Germany ? ? Kirchner will be her failure to pay the political price - also for her husband, former President and Nestor Kirchner ? failure to pay the price in order to convince investors it is safe to do business in Argentina. Despite the control of inflation indices, but the Argentines know that they are increasingly poor. Kirchner and the Peron family's Congress party that controls the legislative elections in October next year, after the will disappear. Compared with the major opposition parties split, the rightists peronista aristocracy may be able to become a big winner. Ms. Fernandes will be able to enjoy the arbitrary cut-off in 2012 before the term of office - if she can hold on until that time. In Venezuela the cost of Hugo Chávez's rule will become clearer. Hitherto, a high and rising oil price has paid for ballooning imports and public spending, concealing the growing inefficiencies of the state-dominated economy. Unless oil, improbably , rises above $ 100 per barrel again, economic growth will slow to a crawl. Mr Chávez still has some room for manoeuvre: he has stashed away perhaps $ 15 billion in various development funds, and the central bank's reserves stand at some $ 30 billion. But as oil dollars become less abundant, the government will tighten import controls and a devaluation may be unavoidable. That will mean a downward spiral of inflation, stagnation and poverty. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez ? the costs of the rule will be more clear. So far, high and rising oil prices have for the surge in imports and pay for public spending and are unable to let the public see their country's emerging to regulate the economy of the state. Unless the gas prices rose to 100 U.S. dollars a barrel (which is unlikely), economic growth will slow to a very speed. President Chavez is still behind the control room: he in various development funds of 15 billion U.S. dollars in reserve funds, and the central bank's reserves reached about 300 billion U.S. dollars. But with oil prices getting lower and lower, the country imports the government will take control, while the currency depreciation will be inevitable. This means that Venezuela will face inflation, recession and poverty deteriorate again. Facing the unravelling of his regime, Mr Chávez may become more radical: expect him to unearth more fictitious coup plots and to curtail political freedoms. the face of such a fragmented political power, President Chavez may be become even more radical: he should be able to open more of the artificial coup and limiting people's political freedom. Divided they fall sub-abortion The most closely watched Latin American election in 2009 will be in Chile, where the Concertación, the moderate centre-left coalition that has governed the country since the end of General Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship in 1990, may lose power. For the first time, the Concertación will probably run two candidates. One would be from the Socialist Party-either Ricardo Lagos, a successful former president, or José Miguel Insulza, the secretary-general of the Organisation of American States. The Christian Democrats may run their own candidate, probably Eduardo Frei, another former president. That division would help Sebastián Pi ñ era, a moderate conservative and successful businessman. He is likely to win the presidency narrowly in a run-off ballot. 2009, the Latin American region's most worthy of people pay close attention to the election of the Chilean elections, the moderate-left coalition "Democratic Union Party" may be down - the party's self - ? General Augusto Pinochet in 1990, the dictatorship has ruled Chile since the end. "Democratic Unionist Party" will be his life for the first time may be sent two presidential candidates. One candidate will come from the Socialist Party - either to be successful ? Former President Ricardo Lagos, or just General of the Organization of American States, Jose ? ? Miguel Insulza. Christian Democratic Party may also send their own candidate, may be another one of former President Eduardo Frei ?. This division will help the party as a moderate conservative and successful businessman Sebastian Pinera ? victory. He may manage to win the final vote. Four smaller countries will also choose a new president in 2009. In Uruguay, the ruling centre-left Broad Front will win a second term, provided it unites around the candidacy of Danilo Astori, a moderate former finance minister. Similarly, in Panama the ruling centre-left Party of the Democratic Revolution should retain power. In El Salvador, the left-wing FMLN's attempts to dislodge the conservative Arena party may founder. In both El Salvador and Honduras the elections may be dominated by attempts by Venezuela's Mr Chávez to influence the result with money and offers of aid. 2009, the four smaller countries also will elect a new president. In Uruguay, as a rule, the party's center-left "public front" to win a second term, as long as the party can unite the candidate Danilo Astori ? (former Minister of Finance moderate) side. Similarly, in Panama's ruling party's left, "the Democratic Revolution Party" will also continue to govern. In El Salvador, left-wing "Farabundo - Marti National Liberation Front," attempts to expel the Conservative Party, "a political party in El Salvador," may fail. In El Salvador and Honduras,replica breitling watches, the two presidential elections because of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez may all money and other assistance and by its lead and influence election results. In Bolivia Evo Morales, the left-wing president, is likely to win a referendum to ratify a new constitution that "refounds" the country as an Amerindian socialist republic. But he will face continuing unrest in the more capitalist eastern provinces. Another of Latin America's radical socialists, Ecuador's Rafael Correa, will organise and win a fresh presidential election under a new constitution. In Colombia, the era of Á lvaro Uribe will draw towards a close-assuming that he opts not to change the constitution to allow him to stand for a third consecutive term in 2010. The fastest growing of the larger economies in Latin America will once again be Peru,replica tag heuer, not least because its government will keep faith in free trade, rather than the socialism fashionable elsewhere. In Bolivia, the leftist president Evo Morales ? likely to win a referendum to correct the new constitution, and the country's "heavy construction" as an American Indian of the Socialist Republic. However, he will face the eastern provinces of capitalism continued turmoil. Another radical socialists in Latin America - Ecuador's Rafael Correa ? The new constitution will be based on the organization and win a new presidential election. In Colombia, President Alvaro Uribe of the times ? be coming to an end - if he does not amend the constitution to let himself re-elected in 2010 words. Latin America, larger economies of the fastest growing again must go to Africa and Peru, at least their government will honor its promise of free trade, rather than scattered everywhere declaration of socialism. Michael Reid: Americas editor, The Economist; author of "Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul" (Yale) Michael ? Reid: "The Economist" magazine editor of the Americas, representative: "the forgotten continent: a war to save the soul of Latin America" (Yale University Press) "The Economist" (The Economist (http://www.economist.com)) only agreed to this web site translation of its magazine content, did not translate the contents of any of the above-mentioned review check Articles key worlds: replica watches, rolex watches, replica watches, cartier watches, replica watches, swiss watches, replica watches, fake watches, replica watches
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